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The Journal / Equity Compensation

The RSU Tax Trap When the Stock Drops: Taxed at $150, Sold at $30, Deducted at $3,000 a Year.

By Ewan Morkel, EA6 min read

The IRS taxed your RSUs as wages at the vest-day price. The round trip back down is a capital loss you deduct at $3,000 a year, and a layoff usually means selling at the bottom. The asymmetry is fixable, but only in advance.

A staff engineer's RSUs vest all through a banner year at prices between $140 and $160, and she holds every share, because selling the stock that made the last two years feel so good seems like a bet against her own company. Eighteen months later the company misses twice, cuts a quarter of the workforce, and her badge stops working the same week the stock finds $30. She sells because she needs the cash. That is the RSU tax trap when the stock drops: the IRS taxed the shares as wages at $150, the market paid her $30, and the tax code refuses to let those two numbers meet.

Two ledgers that never meet

The RSU tax trap when the stock drops, step by step

The trap is built from two rules that are each reasonable alone. First, when RSUs vest, the full market value of the delivered shares is compensation: it lands in box 1 of your W-2, it is taxed at your ordinary rates up to 37%, and your basis in the shares becomes that vest-date value. Your employer withholds on the vest at the flat 22% supplemental rate (37% only above $1 million of supplemental wages), which for anyone in the 32% to 37% brackets means the vest arrives pre-loaded with an April balance due. Second, once the shares are yours, they are just stock. Whatever happens next is capital gain or capital loss, and capital losses live under §1211(b): they offset capital gains without limit, but only $3,000 per year of ordinary income ($1,500 married filing separately).

Income in at ordinary rates, loss out through a capital-loss keyhole. The system never trues up. There is no recomputation of the W-2, no claim-of-right relief under §1341, because you were never required to repay anything, and no equivalent of the AMT credit that eventually gives ISO exercisers some of their money back. The vest-year tax is final the moment the return is filed, no matter what the stock does afterward.

The math

How you can owe more tax than the shares are worth

2,000 shares vest at $150 in 2025; layoff and $30 stock in 2026
W-2 income from the vests (2,000 shares × $150 average)
$300,000
Shares kept after the 30% sell-to-cover at vest
1,400
Tax on the kept shares' $210,000 of income (35% + 5% state)
$84,000
Sale proceeds after the layoff, 1,400 shares at $30
$42,000
Capital loss locked behind §1211(b)
($168,000)
Years to deduct it at $3,000 a year, absent capital gains
56

Vests in tax year 2025, sale in 2026. Assumes a 35% federal bracket plus a 5% state rate on the vest income. The $84,000 of tax attributable to the kept shares is double the $42,000 they ultimately sold for, and that is before counting the extra tax due in April because the 22% supplemental withholding ran behind the real bracket.

Read the two emphasized lines together. The engineer paid $84,000 of tax to keep shares that returned $42,000. Her true economics on those shares are negative even before the layoff cost her the paycheck. The $168,000 capital loss is real, but it is trapped: with no capital gains to absorb it, §1211(b) meters it out at $3,000 a year for 56 years, and the carryforward is personal. Under Rev. Rul. 74-175, whatever she has not used when she dies simply evaporates; her heirs and her estate get nothing from it. A worthless-securities deduction under §165(g) does not rescue the character either, because that loss is still capital, and it requires the stock to be actually worthless, not just down 80%.

Correlated risks

Why the layoff and the crash arrive together

What makes this a trap rather than bad luck is correlation. A tech employee holding vested shares is not running one risk but four stacked copies of the same risk: the salary, the unvested grants, the vested shares, and often an ESPP position all depend on the same company. Companies cut staff when performance drops, and performance drops are why the stock is down, so the layoff and the trough arrive as a package. The 2022 drawdown ran exactly this script, with dozens of listed tech companies down 70% or more from their vest-window highs while running layoff rounds. The moment you most need to sell, because the W-2 income just stopped and COBRA starts next month, is reliably the worst tax and price moment to do it. Diversification is not really a returns decision for equity-comp earners. It is severing the link between your employer's next earnings call and your entire balance sheet.

The way out

Sell at vest, then diversify on purpose

The clean escape is structural, and it only works in advance: sell at vest, by standing instruction, every time. Because basis equals the vest-date value, a same-day sale produces little or no gain, so the sale adds almost nothing to a tax bill the vest already created. Holding, by contrast, is economically identical to receiving a cash bonus and spending all of it on employer stock, which almost nobody would do deliberately. Most equity plans offer an auto-sale election; turning it on converts the whole problem into a payroll event. The proceeds then fund the missing withholding first, since the 22% flat rate rarely covers a real bracket, and a diversified portfolio second. You can sanity-check the withholding gap with our RSU tax calculator.

If you are already concentrated, the unwind is a schedule, not a single trade: a fixed number of shares each month or quarter, set in writing, with a Rule 10b5-1 plan if you are ever near inside information. Pair the sales so gains and losses land in the same year, since a carryforward is used dollar for dollar against gains under §1212(b), which is how a six-figure trapped loss actually gets consumed, absorbing the gains from diversifying everything else. And if you are harvesting a loss while grants are still vesting, watch the calendar, because a scheduled vest inside the 61-day window washes the loss and defers exactly the deduction you were trying to capture.

Frequently asked

Quick answers on this topic.

Can you really owe more tax on RSUs than the shares end up being worth?

Yes. The W-2 income is fixed at the vest-date value and taxed at ordinary rates up to 37% plus state tax, and it is never recomputed. If the stock later falls far enough, the tax already owed on the vest can exceed the eventual sale proceeds, while the decline itself is only a capital loss limited to $3,000 a year against ordinary income under §1211(b). A vest at $150 taxed at a 40% combined rate costs $60 per share; if the stock sells at $30, the tax was double the exit price.

Isn't selling RSUs as soon as they vest bad for taxes?

No, and the intuition that it is causes most of the damage. The full vest-date value is taxed as W-2 income whether you sell or hold, and your basis equals that value, so a same-day sale generates little or no additional gain. Holding only changes the tax on future movement, and it exposes you to the downside asymmetry. Long-term capital gains rates apply only to appreciation after the vest, not to the vest income itself.

Do I get any of the vest-date tax back if my company's stock crashes?

No. There is no mechanism that reopens the vest-year W-2. The claim-of-right doctrine and §1341 apply only when you are legally required to repay income you previously reported, and a market decline is not a repayment. Unlike incentive stock options, where AMT paid on a phantom spread generates a credit under §53, RSU vest tax is simply final.

What happens to a large capital loss carryforward if I never have capital gains?

It deducts against ordinary income at $3,000 per year under §1211(b) and carries forward indefinitely under §1212(b)(1), but only during your lifetime. Rev. Rul. 74-175 holds that capital loss carryovers die with the taxpayer, so an unused six-figure carryforward passes nothing to your estate or heirs. The practical use is to pair it against gains from diversifying other holdings, where it offsets dollar for dollar without limit.

Can I deduct underwater RSU shares as worthless stock after a layoff?

Only if the stock is actually worthless, not merely down sharply. Section 165(g) treats a security that becomes wholly worthless during the year as sold on December 31 of that year, and the resulting loss is still a capital loss subject to the same $3,000 annual limitation. Being laid off does not change the character of the loss or accelerate the deduction; selling the shares is what fixes the loss and starts the clock.

Equity compensation planning

Planning the exercise before you click buy.

ISOs, RSUs, ESPP shares, and 83(b) elections create tax the moment they vest or exercise, and the AMT bill can land months later. We model the spread, time the sales, and file the elections on the clock, so the windfall is not eaten by a surprise in April.

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